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Romney 47, Obama 46
Posted: Sep 13, 2012
Romney 43, Obama 48 - Fox..nm - JTBB
[ In Reply To ..]x
So, IOW, polls mean nothing. - LOL
[ In Reply To ..]nm
Rasmussen means even less. - nm
[ In Reply To ..]nm
I beg to differ. Rasmussen polls LIKELY VOTERS. - So it actually means more.
[ In Reply To ..]LOLOL
Rasmussen accuracy - sm
[ In Reply To ..]or lack thereof . . .
In 2010 . . .
The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.
Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
If one focused solely on the final poll issued by Rasmussen Reports or Pulse Opinion Research in each state — rather than including all polls within the three-week interval — it would not have made much difference. Their average error would be 5.7 points rather than 5.8, and their average bias 3.8 points rather than 3.9.
Nor did it make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were
commissioned for Fox News
by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias.
The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias.
Arithmetic is a beautiful thing to behold. - nm
[ In Reply To ..]nm
Rasmussen is known to be the MOST ACCURATE - through history. nm
[ In Reply To ..]nm
How does the computer script know if it is a likely voter - or even alive for that matter?
[ In Reply To ..]Do they check a photo ID?
Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.
Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious since party identification (unlike characteristics like age and gender) is often quite fluid.
Should not even be close. Obama has lost control - of everything... he must go ! nm
[ In Reply To ..]nm
He never had control of anything except (sm) - Aunt Sue
[ In Reply To ..]the masses, whose eyes have that empty, dazed look. I wonder what is wrong with them, truly.
MYPOLL - anon
[ In Reply To ..]MYPOLL has Romney at 100 percent and Obama with a big fat 0! and MYPOLL is all that matters to me! :-p
Ditto that! It's the same as mine. - nm
[ In Reply To ..]OBAMA spells L-O-S-E.R
Right on! Americans who want to save their country - need to get O out of here! nm
[ In Reply To ..]nm
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