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Right now apparently, from the talk about such a thing, a third party is looking pretty good to a lot of conservatives. A party known for, and powerful through, its discipline and willingness to fall in line behind its leaders has become anything but. The inability to come together behind Boehner isn't due to his incompetence--it's structural.
Will Rogers' saying, "I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat." is now true for the Republicans. Mainstream John Boehner is now seen as to the left of much of his own causus, which is angry and rebellious and will not respect him as their leader. The Tea Party is an insurgent party, and to them the entire current GOP leadership is a rejected authority.
Those who've read about the "authoritiarian follower" personality type no doubt remember also that it is very strongly represented among the tea partiers in Congress. They need a leader and don't have one--yet. AFs may follow their leader unconditionally once they commit, but they do first choose that leader. Will they be wooed back into line, will the speakership pass to to a new person acceptable to them, or will it limp along with a speaker who cannot control his party enough to pass anything?
Must/will mainstream Republicans cave to people who'd burn the barn before they'd let a neighbor they didn't like shelter his horses there?
Any ideas about who could end up pushing to the top? At this point, the only person who comes to my clueless mind is Paul Ryan, but I'm not exactly a GOP insider. Below, just for whatever, is a little history of the Tea Party up to today from the New York Times.
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