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Did Obama prevent second depression


Posted: Jun 22, 2011

 

Did Obama Really Prevent A Second Great Depression?

 

By JOHN MERLINE, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 06/20/2011 05:54 PM ET

 

Politically, the claim makes sense. Casting the challenge Obama faced as immense can help explain the economy's lackluster performance in the two years since the recession officially ended.

But is it an accurate portrayal of what really happened?

IBD reviewed records of economic forecasts made just before Obama signed the stimulus bill into law, as well as economic data and monthly stimulus spending data from around that time, and reviews of the stimulus bill itself.

The conclusion is that in claiming to have staved off a Depression, the White House and its supporters seem to be engaging in a bit of historical revisionism.

Economists weren't predicting a Depression.

White House economists forecast in January 2009 that, even without a stimulus, unemployment would top out at just 8.8% — well below the 10.8% peak during the 1981-82 recession, and nowhere near Depression-era unemployment levels.

The same month, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that, absent any stimulus, the recession would end in "the second half of 2009." The recession officially ended in June 2009, suggesting that the stimulus did not have anything to do with it.

The data weren't showing it, either.

The argument is often made that the recession turned out to be far worse than anyone knew at the time. But various indicators show that the economy had pretty much hit bottom at the end of 2008 — a month before President Obama took office.

Monthly GDP, for example, stopped free-falling in December 2008, long before the stimulus kicked in, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. (See nearby chart.) Monthly job losses bottomed out in early 2009 while the Index of Leading Economic Indicators started to rise in April.

The stimulus timing is off.

When the recession officially ended in June 2009, just 15% of the stimulus money had gone out the door. And that figure's likely inflated, since almost a third of the money was in the form of grants to states, which some studies suggest they didn't spend, but used to pay down debt.

Other programs Obama often touts — Cash for Clunkers, mortgage help, homebuyer tax credits, the auto rescue plans — either came as the recession had ended or was ending or were widely deemed to be busts.

The stimulus wasn't up to the task.

Economists on both sides of the aisle complained at the time that the stimulus was too small or too slow-acting to be very effective at growing the economy, much less stopping any Depression.

Liberal economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krug man wrote that while "the administration insists that the plan is adequate to meet the economy's need ... few economists agree."

Conservative Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, who had advocated for a large stimulus, likewise complained that the one Obama signed would do "too little to raise national spending and employment," calling it an "$800 billion mistake."

Obama himself admitted last week that the stimulus was too slow-acting, saying at his Jobs and Competitiveness Council that "shovel-ready was not as shovel-ready as we expected."

Also often overlooked is that a tremendous amount of stimulus already was in the economy when Obama took office, including President Bush's $150 billion stimulus, two unemployment benefit extensions and $250 billion spent on "automatic stabilizers."

More importantly, the Bush administration pushed through the controversial $700 billion TARP program (which Obama sustained), while the Fed pursued an aggressive anti-recession campaign by, among other things, effectively lowering its target interest rate to zero.

Princeton economist Alan Blinder and Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi studied the relative contribution of Obama's $830 billion stimulus compared with TARP and the Fed's "financial-market policies."

While the economists credit Obama's stimulus for helping end the recession when it did and keeping unemployment lower than it would have been, they concluded that TARP and the Fed's actions were "substantially more effective" at saving the economy from ruin.

 

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/575847/201106201754/Stimulus-Prevented-Second-Depression-Evidence-Says-No.htm

 

SourceWatch:

According to a brief biographical profile supplied to the National Journalism Center Merline attended a course in fall 1984 and has subsequently been "editorial writer, USA Today, Washington bureau chief, Investor's Business Daily, editor, Consumer's Research, assistant editor, Times of the Americas, published in Washington Post, San Diego Union, Cleveland Plain Dealer, Slate, National Review, Weekly Standard, Tech Central Station, published by Competitive Enterprise Institute, appeared on Jim Lehrer NewsHour (PBS)".

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=John_Merline

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He is close to CAUSING a depression - nm

[ In Reply To ..]
nm

It WAS a depression, & still is. (A rose by any - other name). And he INHERITED it. nm

[ In Reply To ..]
-0-

Obama didn't inherit it - He created it

[ In Reply To ..]
Since Obama has been in office his administration added $3.2 trillion

The Democrats are responsible for over $5 trillion the last 4 years.
Did Obama cause the depression? - sashayaway
[ In Reply To ..]
No. I do not agree that Obama created this depression. He did inherit it from Bush, and anyone who cannot see that is just wearing blinders and just don't get it. All of this trouble started when Bush was in office and I really wish he had not run for office at this time. Anyone who did run and won would be facing the same critisism and to not see that, well, something is wrong with your thinking. But everyone has the right to feel as they do and express such, so I am not criticizing you for how you feel or believe, I just don't agree.
the blame is on - both
[ In Reply To ..]
Obama certainly hasn't stopped the bleeding. Sooner or later, he is going to have to take responsibility for his decisions - me thinks it's going to be sooner. His solutions have failed. Time to go back to the drawing board and get some REAL hope and change in the WH.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not supporting Bush. The fact is that he had a Democrat congress since 2006. At what point, do you think, that Obama can take ANY responsibility for this mess?

Bush blew it with TARP that was passed by Democrat-controlled Congress (including Senator Obama). Obama just kept adding to the mess and spent like there was not tomorrow.

Blinders? If you don't believe that BOTH parties are responsible for this mess, THAT is wearing the blinders.

If you listen to conservatives, they will tell you that they do NOT support what Bush did, nor do they support what Obama is doing.
The blame goes to Bush and the Boehner House - Republicans looking out for the corporations- nm
[ In Reply To ..]
Wrong - your party needs to take responsibility - for their part in it
[ In Reply To ..]
Sorry, you don't get to keep blaming republicans for the mistakes the democrats are making.

Oooh guess what too.... Obama AND democrats are looking out for the corporations. Why do you think they love him so much.

How bout keeping it real for a change.
Boehner - anon
[ In Reply To ..]

What did Boehner have to do with the Bush/Obama recession?

Congress controls the purse strings. Nancy Peolsi was speaker from 2006 to 2009 and you blame it on Boehner?

As far as Republicans looking out for the corporations, how does GE fit into the equation? The Democrats like big business just as much as the Republicans. The fact is, ALL politicians like to cozy up to big business when they want money for their campaign.




"Following a $57 billion tax-payer bailout in 2009, the American people (and, to a lesser extent, the Canadians) essentially owned General Motors. That includes Republicans and Democrats, as well as independents, Greens, Libertarians and everyone else.

Yet the company’s Political Action Committee wrote a $5,000 check to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in September, a small piece of the $190,000 the firm has showered on federal candidates this year.

As the Washington Post reported this week, McConnell had been a staunch opponent of the auto-makers’ rescue, saying he could not "ask the American taxpayer to subsidize failure." But, the Post added, “GM doesn't seem to hold a grudge.”

According to the report, GM is not alone among firms that received tax-payer assistance, and are now spending huge campaign dollars to elect politicians (in both parties) who won’t vote to for new regulations, or, in the case of financial firms accused of foreclosure fraud, even to hold them accountable for violating the law:

Companies that received federal bailout money, including some that still owe money to the government, are giving to political candidates with vigor. Among companies with PACs, the 23 that received $1 billion or more in federal money through the Troubled Assets Relief Program gave a total of $1.4 million to candidates in September, up from $466,000 the month before.

An analysis of the campaign spending revealed, “most of those donations are going to Republican candidates.” Despite the Democrats’ decidedly business-friendly approach to governing -- one that has arguably cost them no small degree of support within their base -- corporate America is getting ready to bite the hand that’s fed them throughout the bailouts.

Nowhere is that dynamic clearer than in the world of Big Finance. Democrats bear much of the blame for their current political woes for consistently cozying up to Wall Street. But according to the Post, they’ve now “been abandoned by individual Wall Street donors as well as corporate PACs, leaving the party without an important source of funding as it fends off aggressive Republican challengers.”

Despite the relatively toothless nature of the Wall Street reforms passed by Congress, apparently saying mean things about the financial giants is sufficient to unleash a torrent of campaign dollars for the opposition. Scott Talbott, a lobbyist with the Financial Services Roundtable, told the Post that one factor in Wall Street’s turn is the “tone” some Democrats used against financial firms.  "The entire industry was painted with a broad brush, and there was dissatisfaction with that," Talbott said.

Such sensitivity from bailed-out firms fat with tax dollars is a small sign of the arrogance of corporate America today. Now they’re spending freely to influence elections whose outcomes will effect their bottom lines. It’s a feature of America’s first post-Citizens United election, and more frighteningly, it’s a harbinger of things to come.

At a recent conference on the decision, Robert Weisman, president of the watchdog group Public Citizen, noted that $5.2 billion were spent in the entire 2007-2008 election cycle by all federal candidates. “Exxon in that same period made $85 billion in profit; Pfizer made $27 billion selling just Lipitor alone,” said Weisman. “Last year, Goldman Sachs spent $16.5 billion on executive compensation. So if they choose to, corporations can completely overwhelm the political process, and they’re going to choose to do it more and more.”

As I write in my new book, The Fifteen Biggest Lies About the Economy, if there were anyone left who truly believed that the U.S. economy bore even a vague resemblance to a free market, surely the multibillion-dollar bailouts that Wall Street and other sectors have enjoyed since the collapse of the debt-backed securities market came as an eye-opener.

The government intervenes in the market all of the time—we pay some farmers to grow crops, others not to; we promote specific industries’ products in international markets; the government sets up the rules under which corporations negotiate with their workers; governments sign trade agreements that determine which workers will face competition from overseas firms—and which will not—they routinely dole out tax breaks and low-interest loans and waive environmental and other standards to promote regional growth; and on and on and on.

But this election will present a different phenomenon: the private sector intervening more aggressively than ever before in the marketplace of ideas, in the bedrock of a healthy democracy."

Bush is responsible FOR the crash, Boehner is responsible for current "Do Nothing" - simple
[ In Reply To ..]
Boehner and Republicans are again holding the American people hostage by trying to make Obama and the Democrats fail. Wisconsin knows this, the rest will soon understand.
responsbility - hard to come by
[ In Reply To ..]
So, if Obama and the Democrats fail, it's the fault of Boehner and Republicans?

Tell me something. Are liberals EVER going to take responsibility for ANYTHING at all or are they going to just continually blame the other side? Since they don't have any successes to tout and there has been nothing but failure after failure of his administration and continued misery for the American people, I guess that's the new campaign strategy.

I can't wait for Nov 2012. Only 502 days and counting!
Assuming - mbmt
[ In Reply To ..]
Are you assuming that the Republicans would do a much better job? I personally have seen enough of the damage the Republicans have done on the state level in Wisconsin and several other states...no thanks! I have lived in Wisconsin for nearly 58 years and I do not even recognize this state anymore. It's totally changed and not for the better. Does it occur to you that there is a possibility that it is going to be a rough road to recovery no matter who is in office on the national level? As far as 2012 goes, you just might be dealing with four more years of President Obama (I hope so). Last I looked at the polls, people are not nearly as disapproving of President Obama as they are of Congress, which tells me that the Republicans do not have nearly as good of a shot at taking over the White House as they think they do. Also, I do not see any strong Republican candidates for president at this point in time.
HAHAHA. You really are laughable. Obama is "the one" - holding America hostage.nm
[ In Reply To ..]
nm

Wrong. It was a Recession. Obama is close to pushing - it into a Depression.. He is clueless.nm

[ In Reply To ..]
nm
recession versus depression - icedT
[ In Reply To ..]
"Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his." -Ronald Reagan

No it wasn't - sm

[ In Reply To ..]
When Bush was in office we were not in a depression. Do you even understand the difference between a depression and recession.

You cannot continue to take the blame off the current crowd by blaming something happening now on the past.

And your statement "A Rose by another other name" doesn't cut it.

He needs to take responsibility and people need to stop blaming everyone else (republicans only that is) for the problems being created now.

Created...get it...that means happening now.

C'mon people...how about some common sense. Get off the loyalty to the party and try and see the facts for what they are.

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