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POLL: Dem advantage with women collapses

Posted: Oct 22, 2014

Most Democratic women I know personally are not happy with their party and it's socialistic agenda. It appears only the D women here on this board are still happy with their man.

;

Yes, right. Only democrat women on MT Stars - political board are happy

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with the president.

:/

Exaggerate much?

It appears that way. - sm

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Again, *appears.* No exaggeration. Just an opinion. Whine much?

How does it "appear" that way, when there are - many female public figures

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who openly support the president? You're exaggerating. You can say I'm whining because I pointed it out, but that doesn't make any more sense than your previous false statement.

It's called an opinion. - sm

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You have an opinion, too. I'm not going to argue with it. It's yours. Mine is mine. End of story. Period.

There IS one major difference in both opinions: - (s/m)

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One is just that. An opinion.

The other is what the poster considers "THE" opinion. (i.e., the "correct" opinion. wink-wink). That particular opinion is always closed with an "End of story. Period." which gives away the poster's belief that it's the ONLY way to think, and all else are wrong.

The poll question was about Congress. - sm

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I attached the actual poll findings at the link below for anyone interested. Relevant sections quoted below.

"Among all adults, 38 percent say they’d like the Democrats to wind up in control of Congress, to 36 percent for the Republicans. But the GOP holds a significant lead among those most likely to cast ballots: 47 percent of these voters favor a Republican controlled-Congress, 39 percent a Democratic one. That’s a shift in the GOP’s favor since an AP-GfK poll in late September, when the two parties ran about evenly among likely voters.

Women have moved in the GOP’s direction since September. In last month’s AP-GfK poll, 47 percent of female likely voters said they favored a Democratic-controlled Congress while 40 percent wanted the Republicans to capture control. In the new poll, the two parties are about even among women, 44 percent prefer the Republicans, 42 percent the Democrats."

So it appears that this is yet another one of these polls where all voters polled actually favor Democrats, but then the poll people in their infinite wisdom then decide who is a likely voter and then adjust the numbers based on their opinion as to who will "likely" vote. The actual poll says that "women have moved" in support of Republicans, from 40 percent in September to 44 percent in the latest poll, but again they are only counting what they have decided are the women "likely" to vote.

So it is Fox News that describes it as a "collapse," but the actual numbers don't seem to remotely support the description on Fox News, but then who is surprised by that?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/10/22/poll-dem-advantage-with-women-collapses/

You said: "It appears only the D women here on this board are still happy with their man."

"Their man?" Are you referring to President Obama as "their man?"

It appears the C women on this board actually think President Obama is on the ballot in November.

1. Obama put himself on the ballot. 2. It is indeed a "collapse" relative ton absolute - prior women's support for dems. nm

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x

Nice rhetoric you got there, but I just came back from voting - sm

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And I can assure you that Obama is not on the ballot anywhere. In fact, there's no ballot at all for the President of the United States because the position is filled through January 2017.

The only thing that it "is indeed" is a poll that is attempting to guess the outcome of a midterm election. The actual poll showing a 4-point swing toward Republicans by "likely" women voters is described as a "move" toward Republicans by the actual poll. Fox News changed the word "move" to "collapse." There was never an "absolute" prior women's support for any party. Absolute means complete, total.

If you wish to delude yourself and others that Obama is somehow on the ballot, you are certainly free to do so, but he's not. When the vote is actually counted, we will find out if there is any kind of huge swing toward Republicans depending on who showed up to the polls. The pollsters are showing Democrats favored among everyone polled but only a shift when they factor in likely voters. This could indeed be correct, but if they're wrong about the likely voters, this may not be correct at all.

Polls will guess, but time will tell.

Guess you missed his speech where he said "I'm not on the ballot - but my policies are." Same diff.

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That's why Dems have been running a mile in tight shoes to avoid him and even avoid mentioning his name, repeating the mantra "Obama isn't on the ballot...Obama isn't on the ballot."

Oh, yes he is.

Guess people misunderstood the meaning of the word NOT. - sm

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"I'm not on the ballot" means I'm NOT on the ballot. It's not the "same diff," and Saint Ronnie Ray-Gun's name is not on there either, even though Republicans are repeating the mantra, "Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan." LOL. Gag.

Like I said... Enjoy the delusion that he's on the ballot if you wish, but his name was not on my ballot, and I swear that his name will not be on anyone else's unless they write it on there.

:)

Sigh. As usual, context matters - and

[ In Reply To ..]

no, it's not the "same diff." He did not say "my" policies are on the ballot, he said "these." Big diff, since he elaborated on precisely what policies he was talking about:

"I am not on the ballot this fall. Michelle’s pretty happy about that. But make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot. Every single one of them. This isn’t a political speech, and I’m not going to tell you who to vote for – even though I suppose it is kind of implied.

But I have laid out my ideas to create more jobs and grow more wages. A true opposition party should have the courage to lay out theirs. There’s a reason fewer Republicans are preaching doom on deficits – because they’re now manageable. There’s a reason fewer are running against Obamacare – because while good, affordable health care might still be a fanged threat to freedom on Fox News, it’s working pretty well in the real world.

But when push came to shove this year, and Republicans in Congress actually had to take a stand on policies that would help the middle class and working Americans – raising the minimum wage, enacting fair pay, refinancing student loans, extending insurance for the unemployed – the answer was 'no'."

I can't think of a single dem who isn't running in sync with the president and his party on these policy issues. After all, they've run on them every election cycle for as long as I can remember. Those policies are why I vote a straight blue ticket. What's got dem opponents and conservative media in such an uproar over this is not the policies per se, it's the part I left unbolded in black, i.e. how he effectively pointed out the GOP's "we got nothin'" deficit.

Ummm...that was an AP report, not originated by Fox. - Hardly a conservative bastion, the AP.

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We could have so much better discussions on this forum if people would just do their research instead of regurgitating the party spew.

Ummm... That was an AP POLL that was spun into a Fox News headline. - sm

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I actually linked to the poll by AP-GfK and quoted from it verbatim where it describes a 4-point "move" in the polls by "likely" women voters and also supplied a link to Fox News where Fox describes this same exact poll as a "collapse" in Dem advantage with women.

Obviously I did my research by linking to the actual poll and then supplying a link to the Fox News spin of the same poll where they describe a 4-point poll shift as a "collapse."

What part is confusing?

Rove, Armey, Coulter all predicted a Romney landslide - In 2012

[ In Reply To ..]
We all know how well that turned out for them. As with all elections, it all boils down to turnout, doesn't it? That, and history is a pretty good indicator. Specifically, the 6-year itch phenomenon. That trend actually DOES favor the GOP this time around and if complacent dems allow it to happen, they get what they deserve, spoken by a dyed-in-the-wool liberal. Then there's the gerrymander effect on the House races that is every bit as crucial for dems to address locally in the interim as it is for pubs to face their demographic, leadership and platform challenges in national elections, come 2016. If they think they can continue to run on do-nothing records and personal attack agendas, they will continue to lose, time after time. Then, all that will really matter is the president's veto pen.

11/04/2012 - Rove predicts 2% margin. Real Clear Politics. - It was libs who said Rove predicted a "landsl

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Facts are stubborn things.

Fortunately the Google machine kept records of right-wing - landslide boasts

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I'll not waste my time retrieving more than one example. On Nov 4 @ 3:30 in the afternoon the Blaze literally SCREAMED (as indicated by the huge bold letters) as it crowed about how many GOP in-the-know pundits forecast a Romney landslide (as clearly stated in the headline):

Larry Kudlow

Joe Scarborough

"Strategist" Karl Rove

George Will

Dick Morris

Michael Barone

Wayne Allen Root (Vegas oddsmaker LOL)

Israel

Glenn Beck

I do have to correct my previous post, though. Since I rarely watch Fox and have little to no interest in what Freedomworks does or says, I have always confused Dick Armey with Dick Morris, the guy with egg all over his face after the election. I stand by my Rove statement since, as you can see, for whatever reason, the Blaze calls that (51% - 48% =) 3% margin electoral college prediction a "landslide."

Larry Kudlow

Joe Scarborough

"Strategist" Karl Rove

George Will

Dick Morris

Michael Barone

Wayne Allen Root (Vegas oddsmaker LOL)

Israel (thrown in for good measure, I guess)

Glenn Beck

I do have to correct my previous post, though. Since I rarely watch Fox and have little to no interest in what Freedomworks does or says, I have always confused Dick Armey with Dick Morris, the guy with egg all over his face after the election. I stand by my Rove statement since, as you can see, due to routine exaggeration practices, the Blaze calls that (51% - 48% =) 3% margin electoral college prediction a "landslide." Won't quibble further, except to say he was still W-R-O-N-G.

The Google machine is even more stubborn than GOP "facts."

Actually it was, that is if things went fairly - sm

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As I was watching the news at around 3pm PST Romney had a landslide win. Then about 15 minutes later (when west coast had not even had the polling places close we heard the announcement that Obama "won". Kind of figured it would happen since around 1pm we were watching how bankers in Europe were already receiving payouts from his "win".

People can continue to lie to yourselves and tell yourselves this was a "fair" election if that makes people feel better, but can't tell you when the last "fair" election was held. Not in my adult lifetime.

PS - If this last election was fair, so was the Bush/Gore election.

There's this thing called the electoral college. Here. - Let's see

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what a landslide looks like.

EC total votes 538
Obama got 332 - 61.7%
Mitt to 206 - 38.3%

Mitt only got 76% of the 270 EC vote minimum required. The president reached that number, as you said, before the polls closed on the west coast, making it mathematically impossible for Candidate 47% (ironically his favorite number to bat around behind closed doors and his share of the popular vote) to reach the Constitutionally mandated EC vote to win the election. He lost, fair and square, after President Obama swept the east coast states and the networks called Ohio just after 11 pm EST. Who could forget the Karl Rove meltdown and his refusal to accept the results?

There's also the Google machine thing. - sm

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Not sure what station you were watching or in what alternate universe you watched the election. I guess people can continue to lie to themselves that Romney actually won, but I can assure you that even Romney's internal pollsters took exit polls, and they already admitted they were wrong about who they thought would be likely voters and the composition of the voter turnout and that the Obama campaign beat them in the "get out the vote" category, something we liberals call "GOTV."

Interesting reading about exit polls follows.

Quoting Romney's pollsters from 2012 (see link below)

Three Keys From the Exit Polls
*1. The first thing I want to point out about the exit polls is that Mitt Romney won white women by 14 points – 56%-42%. Our challenge is with minority voters, not so much with white women.
I spent the 2012 cycle saying that Republicans had a huge math problem – our Presidential candidates can never win a landslide again unless the fundamentals change. Our opportunity was the political environment, but the math outweighed it. Unless we are a party that is seriously competitive with Latino voters, we might never win another presidential election again, but it’s going to take a political environment that is overwhelmingly in our favor.
* 2. Another key factor in the exit polls is that 46% of the voters were age 18-44, and just 16% were senior citizens.
I had made the case that, as a party, we were overpolling older voters in Presidential years. (Heck, we are in non-Presidential years too). Now, one big assumption I made was, between enthusiasm drops and the economy, younger voters would fall to a 40-42% share of the electorate. That turned out not to be true.
* 3. Saving the worst for last is that there are too many Democrats.
To me, the biggest surprise, and concern, is that Democrats were 38% of the electorate, while Republicans were just 32%. The spread in 2008 was 39% Dem/32% GOP – so this electorate was really no different.
We have entered a world where partisan voters rarely cross party lines. Unwillingness to work across party lines in Congress is partly driven by unwillingness of partisans to vote across party lines. If the parties are more evenly matched, then winning Independents is more important. But, if the Democrats having a six-seven point party ID advantage in Presidential years is the new normal, then it is much more problematic for us.

End Quoting

Actually, that 38% of the electorate being Democrat versus 32% being Republicans matches very well with the AP poll numbers in the OP's post that said ""Among all adults, 38 percent say they’d like the Democrats to wind up in control of Congress." The numbers only change in Republicans' favor when they use what they deem are "likely voters."

Anyway, as far as when the networks called it for Obama, the Google machine records all this stuff so you can actually go back and research it. When did the networks call the 2012 election for Obama?

https://popwatch.ew.com/2012/11/06/president-barack-obama-election-2012-called-times/

"After a night of high-tech analysis and corny gimmicks, a majority of the networks called the election for President Barack Obama shortly after 11 p.m. ET Tuesday. Here are the exact times each said that Obama won four more years in office.

NBC — 11:12 p.m.
MSNBC — 11:12 p.m.
CBS — 11:16 p.m.
Fox — 11:16 p.m.
CNN — 11:18 p.m.
Fox News — 11:18 p.m.
The Daily Show — 11:21 p.m.
ABC — 11:23 p.m.
The Colbert Report — 11:35 p.m.

All times are Eastern."

Sorry you are being told the elections are rigged by the right wing propaganda machine while their internal pollsters know exactly why they lost in 2012 (their internal pollsters predicting turnout demographics totally wrong) and what they're up against in 2016. I cannot fathom why they'd lie to you. Oh, wait! Yes, I can because I read it, and it's bleak for the GOP in presidential years when Democrats tend to vote. In 2016, there are only 10 Democrat Senate seats up for reelection versus 25 Republican Senate seats. Huge chance for a lopsided Senate in 2016. Oops!

Oh, now it's OK to trust Google? - LOL

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I wish you guys would make up your mind. I guess it's just OK to trust it when it's related to a liberal topic, right? OK, gotcha!

ROFL

OMG! Romney's pollsters' exit polling data is being called a "liberal topic." - "OK, Gotcha!?" Um, no.

[ In Reply To ..]
You said: "Oh, now it's OK to trust Google? - LOL. I wish you guys would make up your mind. I guess it's just OK to trust it when it's related to a liberal topic, right? OK, gotcha! ROFL"

I posted Romney's pollsters' exit polling data from the 2012 election straight off the website that discusses the Republican candidate's pollsters' exit polling data for the last presidential election and what they foresee for future elections, and it's your assessment that it's "related to a liberal topic."

Um, no. Repeat: It's the Republican pollsters' website. I copied information from the pollsters' website and provided a link to the conservative pollsters for additional information. It's perfectly fine with liberals if you ignore the information and learn nothing about your own party's assessment of the 2012 election and future outlook for conservatives.

Yes, of course it's okay to trust Google; it always has been. Google is just a search engine that really doesn't know a "liberal topic" from a conservative one. So you have that in common.

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