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Why did the unemployment rate drop?
Posted: Dec 2, 2011
I think the most encouraging part of this report is in the last paragraph.
The U.S. added 120,000 jobs in November, but the unemployment rate posted a huge drop to 8.6% from 9% and a broader unemployment rate fell even more to 15.6% from 16.2%. Why?
The number of jobs added comes from a survey of establishment payrolls. The unemployment rate comes from a separate survey of U.S. households. The household survey is much smaller than the establishment survey, and as a result it can swing around a lot — and move the unemployment rate up and down when it does. That volatility is a big reason why economists usually, but not always, pay much more attention to the establishment report.
The unemployment rate is calculated based on people who are without jobs, who are available to work and who have actively sought work in the prior four weeks. The “actively looking for work” definition is fairly broad, including people who contacted an employer, employment agency, job center or friends; sent out resumes or filled out applications; or answered or placed ads, among other things. The rate is calculated by dividing that number by the total number of people in the labor force.
In October, the household survey showed the number of people unemployed fell by 594,000, but the labor force — the number of people working or looking for work — fell by a little more than half that amount. That means that though the number of employed people rose, a large group just stopped looking for work. That could be due to discouragement of the long-term unemployed or by choice over retirement or child care. So the decline in the unemployment rate to 8.6% was about half due to people finding jobs and half people dropping out.
Meanwhile, the broader unemployment rate, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification by the Labor Department, dropped by a 0.6 percentage point last month. The U-6 figure includes everyone in the official rate plus “marginally attached workers” — those who are neither working nor looking for work, but say they want a job and have looked for work recently; and people who are employed part-time for economic reasons, meaning they want full-time work but took a part-time schedule instead because that’s all they could find.
The key to the drop in the broader unemployment rate was due to a 378,000 drop in the number of people employed part time but who would prefer full-time work, that comes on top of a big drop in that category last month. That number could reflect people having their hours increased or part-time workers moving on to full time work.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/12/02/why-did-the-unemployment-rate-drop-5/
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Health care employment rises - Obama Cares
[ In Reply To ..]Health care employment continued to rise in November (+17,000). Within the industry, hospitals added 9,000 jobs. Over the past 12 months, health care has added an average
of 27,000 jobs per month.
Any increase in health care is good news for MTs.
LOL! Obama "Cares?" - ROFL
[ In Reply To ..]Obama has done more to destroy jobs than almost any other president; that's why his approval ratings have dropped even lower than Jimmah Cahtah's.
The only thing Obama "cares" about is his own radical agenda. PERIOD.
ROFL - Nick
[ In Reply To ..]You are absolutely correct.
I agree as well. Saying Obama cares is the - most laughable statement. nm
[ In Reply To ..]nm
Really? Last year's UE rate was 9.8%. - Do the math.
[ In Reply To ..]Does the number 3 million ring a bell? As of the end of October, 2.27 million jobs were added over the previous 21 consecutive months since Feb 2010. Continual growth in health care sector since HCR. Consumer spending is beginning to pick up and the Dow is over 12,000, despite the euro crisis. Any way you slice it, that spells improvement. I know, it's a terrible blow for you naysayers who root for failure, so your whining and grousing is understandable.
I'll take modest improvement and steps in the right direction over the free-fall economy Bush left behind any day of the week. Is it enough? Of course not, but given the recalcitrant one-term mantra the obstructionists chant on a daily basis, it's a wonder that 9.8 didn't double. Guess the TP/GOP best efforts to tank the economy weren't quite good enough. Oh, BTW, what has that GOP majority in the house done lately to produce jobs? What? I can't hear you....
It's not Obama who wants to raise taxes on the - sm
[ In Reply To ..]middle class and the poor. It's the Republicans.
It's not Obama who was against his own jobs plan. Once again, as usual, it's the Republicans who refuse to help the middle class or poor and only care about the top 1%.
I'm surprised that the Republicans allowed the jobs bill for veterans to go through.
With very few exceptions, the Republicans are anti-everyday Americans and 1,000% the richest of the rich.
America will become a third-world country if the Republicans get their way. It's certainly well on its way right now.
Increase in heath care employment - Anonymous
[ In Reply To ..]Not necessarily good news for MTs. Voice recognition and point and click are not going away. Health care includes pharmaceutical companies, food service jobs, and people directly involved in patient care. I would guess that a lot of the "added" jobs are low paying, perhaps part time without benefits. It does not necessarily mean that those jobs have anything to do with transcription. I'd like to see the numbers broken down and know how many of those jobs are transcription jobs or clerical jobs. It's easy to manipulate statistics and take things out of context so I'm skeptical, but it would be wonderful if things were truly turning the corner. I'm glad some of you think Obama cares. I drank that Kool-Aid and then reality set in.
The unemployment rate dropped - Nick
[ In Reply To ..]because about 350,000 people became so discouraged that they are no longer looking for work. Obummer has nothing to brag about.
Exactly. The REAL unemployment rate is now over - 10pct...they gave up... sad. nm
[ In Reply To ..]nm
Leaving the work force is not the same as - giving up.
[ In Reply To ..]That number is calculated by not counting people who have not done a job search for that month, i.e. 4 weeks. It's not the same as abandoning job search all together since many of them have been looking for work prior to that and will resume their search in the future. How many companies outside of retail and hospitality hire and train new employees during the holiday season? I know in my husband's field, work dries up between Thanksgiving and New Years, then rebounds after the first of the year, just like it does in MT.
Aside from that, as has already been posted, there are many groups included in that number that stop job search for reasons other than discourgement, such as retirees, students and people who have gone on to become self-employed. Nothing particularly sad about that, nm. What I find sad is all those so-called patriots out there who sit around hoping for the economy to fail and for the unemployed to STAY unemployed while supporting pols who do everything in their power to undermine recovery and serve the interests of those who have remained above the fray and unscathed by the downturn.
To get to 8.6, they needed to create 600,000 jobs. - but created 100,000.. improvement is fake! nm
[ In Reply To ..]nm
Source please, other than your own malcontent. - Cooked books, two-way street
[ In Reply To ..]Try posting something credible, which would exclude blog babble from right-wing damage control stink tanks. Some objective, nonpartisan data would do the trick.
Not quite. That number includes a host of retiring boomers and - Let's get your facts straight
[ In Reply To ..]those who are no longer seeking employment who have created their own jobs, i.e., gone into busines for themselves plus those who elected to return to school or receive job training in lieu of doing a job search. The exact breakdown is not yet available and the data on these various groups does not surface for several months but as an example, Table 1A of the report shows that out of the 85,558 "noninstitutional civilians" not in the work force, only 6,595 actually WANT jobs. Apparently the Boomer cohort is retiring in droves. FYI, that number includes people who have not looked for a job in the past 4 weeks, but most of them have done a job search in the past 12 months, which does not exactly add up to "so discouraged they are no longer looking for work." In fact, discouraged worker numbers were down 186,000 from last year. Some among them indicated they temporarily suspended their job searches due to school attendance or family responsibilities.
It is apparent that you did not read the report before you sniped, whoops, I mean posted. Other positive indicators in this preliminary version are that 594,000 people are now employed that were not employed in October. The number of unemployed who lost their jobs or completed temporary assigments declined by 432,000. The number of persons who work parttime because they cannot find fulltime work or had their hours cut also declined by 378,000.
Try checking out the total picture here. It's a bit different than the one you are trying to paint.
PS: No one, including Obama, is "bragging" about these numbers. They are simply observing the trend toward improvement, which I am quite certain you find rather unnerving.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Thank God for those seasonal jobs. Get back to us in January - BS, I mean BLS
[ In Reply To ..]NM
In a preliminary BLS report some #s have been adjusted - and some haven't
[ In Reply To ..]That among other factors is why it's considered to be preliminary. It actually takes several weeks before the numbers are finalized. That said, I'd suggest you read the actual report since most of the gains in November's report were made in sectors that are not subject to seasonal adjustment with the exception of retail and hospitality. I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting for that number to magically transform back to 9% regardless of how giddy it makes you feel to entertain that delusion. The majority of seasonal workers were hired in Sept and Oct, and those numbers have already been seasonally adjusted....upward.
Whether the Nov number or the recent trend toward improvement holds after the first of the year isn't as significant as the fact that the Nov UE rate is the lowest it has been in 2.5 years. If you want to have the boo-hoos over optimism that the job sector is seeing some improvement along with other economic indicators, knock yourself out, but it is what it is. Most folks who have been unemployed for months and even years will still be just as encouraged after your post as they were before. For them, it's not a political issue. It's personal.
Because.... - sm
[ In Reply To ..]It is now coming up to the holiday season. Of course they always publish this information each year right after they hire season workers. The unfortunate part is once the season is over these people will be out of work once again. Same with the census. They reported unemployment dropped. However, once that project came to an end those people were again out of work. Also, WSJ is not exactly the place I would go to if I wanted to get the straight truth of issues as we all know what party they lean towards. Independent sites are the best place to find the truth.
What's really sad is unfortunately unemployment is still high. In the town I live in it is at 13.6%, in the next largest town is 11.6, next largest city (the capital of our state 10.2), where my inlaws live 12.5, where my family lives 10.2, 10.7, 11.3, 12.9, etc, etc, etc. I have family and friends in 5 different states and different areas in the states and they all say it's bad where they live. No jobs, more of their friends and family are losing their jobs and there is no hopes of their jobs coming back.
Also, as you well know, over 300,000 people who were receiving unemployment benefits have now stopped filing, and have lost their benefits. One person in my family can no longer collect unemployment as it only last for a certain number of months. Now he doesn't know what he'll do. So, it's misleading to say that unemployment has dropped because people no longer collect. They are still unemployed.
The fact is no matter how much you love and adore the president, the figures do not lie. Unemployment has not dropped. Oh sure, they can report anything they want. Heck, why not just say unemployment is at 3 or 2%, heck better yet just say it's at zero now. Just because they say it doesn't mean it's true.
The truly sad fact is that unemployment is on the rise. It doesn't make a difference whether it's because of the administration under Obama or under Bush or under any future president. It's just a sad fact and nobody know when it will get better.
Cannot blame Obama for high unemployment - mbmt
[ In Reply To ..]President Obama does not have the power to create jobs. He can create a jobs package or bill, but if Congress turns it down, there is really nothing he can do. Thing is, the Republicans are not going to go along with any of President Obama's ideas because they want him to look like a failure. They do not want him to be re-elected period!
He does not need them to look like a failure - And....
[ In Reply To ..]Funny how every blamed Bush for high unemployment.
And no, I don't blame them for not wanting him to be re-elected. Why in the world would anyone want more the same failure. Why would anyone want the economy to continue to tank. No, I don't blame Mr. Obama personally. I blame the democrats who pass the bad bills just because a democrat came up with it.
When things have failed it's time to try something new. We need someone with new ideas and solutions. I haven't seen that with anyone yet on either side.
Maybe they're counting all those new employees - in INDIA. (nm)
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