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Worst of US Recession Over
Posted: Oct 12, 2009
The worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression has ended, but weak household spending as the labor market struggles to create jobs will slow the pace of the economy's recovery, according to a survey released on Monday.
The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.
"The great recession is over," said NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE59B33T20091012m
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recession - anon
[ In Reply To ..]I don't think it is over in rural Ky.
Or in Oregon, but that is always the way it goes - Colleen
[ In Reply To ..]We tend to feel the effects of these things last and notice recovery last. Good to know it is headed this way, however. Thank you, President Obama.
who did they ask? - dnh
[ In Reply To ..]It would be interesting to see the responses if they asked "regular" people instead of professional business forecasters because most of the working people, or those who used to be working people who are now unemployed people, would probably find that assessment a little tough to swallow.
My "union" carpenter fiance has been laid off since Dec 08! - nm
[ In Reply To ..].
Unemployment is the last indicator to rise - NJ
[ In Reply To ..]Unemployment figures are always the last thing to rebound in a recession.
NJ
how about housing? - cj
[ In Reply To ..]I don't see a big boost in the housing market either, which is a major indicator. Take a look at Phoenix, all of California but southern california in particular, take a look at Florida among other areas. I guess I don't put too much stock in the "forecast" but, rather, look at what is happening to people all around me who are losing or have lost jobs and many are running out of unemployment benefits. I look at the pleas from the homeless shelters in our state where we are just heading into winter and the shelters are so full they are already turning people away, the food pantries who are crying for donations because they don't have enough to feed the hungry and donations have fallen off so sharply, and I look at the rising crime rate in our area. When I look around me, it doesn't look like the end of a recession to me.
Beginning of the end - NJ
[ In Reply To ..]I agree in part. Our local shelters are still overwhelmed as are the food banks, etc. Free health clinics have very large turnouts.
Here in NE Ohio, the housing market is turning around. Prices are climbing again. There is little demand for new housing, though, with all the empty buildings left from the foreclosure fiasco. So, the tradesmen will be hurting for awhile. Most of their money (the guys I know, anyway) is currently coming from renovations, not building new places.
Ohio wasn't doing well in 2000. (Bumps in the economy are common in presidential-election years, I think.) We never did recover and the late 90s still look good to us. Maybe we're just used to a bad economy.
Still, I think the economy is turning around. Not as quickly as we would like, but more quickly than some of us feared.
NJ
WRONG! I live in NE Ohio and it is terrible here! - nm
[ In Reply To ..]..
A little more info please? - NJ
[ In Reply To ..]While things are terrible, I'm curious as to what you thought was wrong in my previous post. Are house prices not starting to rebound where you are? Care to give a county or more info on that?
Thanks!
NJ
No thanks - not interested in arguing with you! - You already know it all...nm
[ In Reply To ..].
It is far from over. Unemployment could peak 10.5 by next summer - Sunflower
[ In Reply To ..]Top Economist Says Unemployment Could Peak at 10.5 Percent
Mark Zandi warns on "FOX News Sunday" that the recovery will continue to be "halting" and "fragile," backing up estimates from other economists that show unemployment peaking next summer and hovering above 8 percent four years down the road.
FOXNews.com
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Unemployment will continue to rise and could peak at 10.5 percent, one of the nation's top economists said Sunday.
Mark Zandi, co-founder of Moody's Economy.com, warned on "FOX News Sunday" that the recovery will continue to be "halting" and "fragile," backing up estimates from other economists that show unemployment peaking next summer and hovering above eight percent four years down the road. New figures released last week showed unemployment rose to 9.8 percent in September, the highest since 1983.
But Zandi, one of the foremost economists cited by the Obama administration and Congress during the push for the $787 billion economic stimulus package in February, argued that despite the dismal economic predictions the recovery package was still a success and has prevented a massive problem from becoming even worse.
"10.5 percent is a very reasonable expectation for the peak in unemployment, but I think it would be measurably higher if not for the stimulus package," Zandi said. "The stimulus in my view is working. It's just gotten overwhelmed by the magnitude of the economic crisis."
Zandi said the presumably slow recovery means stimulus benefits should be extended into 2010.
He said unemployment benefits, first-time home buyer credits and state aid should all be continued.
"If you've got 10 percent-plus unemployment, people are going to be out of work. They're going to need more help," he said.
Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, whose state's unemployment rate is the highest in the nation at 15.2 percent, agreed that unemployment benefits should be extended. The Democratic governor said that the stimulus has helped, even though "unemployment is at a ridiculously high level."
But Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said the stimulus has not yielded the benefits it advertised months ago.
"It's coming very slowly, if at all," the Republican told "FOX News Sunday." "The stimulus, I didn't oppose the idea of it, but I don't think you can point to much effect so far."
In Michigan, it can only go up. sm - MT and worn out
[ In Reply To ..]In Michigan, our unemployment rate is 15.6%. I don't see it going anywhere but up any time soon. Until our squabbling politicians put aside their differences and actually DO something to improve the business climate in Michigan, I see perhaps 16% plus in unemployment. BUt that is just my opinion.
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