"The Scary Truth About How Much Climate Change is Costing You"

posed by rising sea levels, devastating storms, and drought is growing every day.

Here are some excerpts to scan from a very good but long article in the National Journal (a politically moderate publication) about what climate change is costing us already, with link to entire article below.

"In the 1980s, when then-Rep. Al Gore, D-Tenn., first sounded the alarm about climate change, it was a frightening specter, but it sounded far off, like someone else’s future. But that future is starting to arrive. Scientists and economists agree that we’re now experiencing the measurable, real-world effects of human-caused climate change. Those effects are hitting Americans where they notice first—in their wallets. Climate change is quantifiably slowing economic growth, raising government spending, and creating new layers of risk and uncertainty for investors."

...  "Last month, 13 federal agencies jointly released a draft of the third National Climate Assessment, which concluded, simply, “Climate change is already affecting the American people.” The report found that climate change, caused by human activities, has caused rising sea levels, more frequent and intense heat waves, heavy downpours, floods, and droughts. And that’s not all. Prolonged heat waves and droughts, driven by climate change, are pushing down production of crops and livestock, thus driving up food prices. The changes are also sparking larger and more frequent wildfires; melting the glaciers and mountain snowpack that are essential sources of water supply in the West; and lowering the levels in major bodies of water, from the Colorado and Mississippi rivers to the Great Lakes.

Climate change is causing major disruptions to the nation’s transportation and energy infrastructure, leading to increased power outages and fuel-price spikes, and slowing the movement of goods and people. Heavy levels of carbon are acidifying the oceans, destroying the organisms that support the nation’s seafood industry.

All of this comes with costs. A 2012 study by the Madrid-based group DARA found that extreme weather associated with climate change is costing the world economy $1.2 trillion a year, destroying 1.6 percent of global gross domestic product. The study projects that the effects of climate change could cut global GDP by 3.2 percent a year by 2030."

"Despite all the evidence that climate change has started costing the economy, businesses, and taxpayers, and that much higher costs are to come, the congressional response has been to largely ignore the problem, except to pay for damages as they arise. "

“Up until recently, the debate was, how much does it cost us to address climate change—and the cost of acting overwhelmed us,” says Matthias Ruth, an economist at Northeastern University who has published a series of reports on the economic impact of climate change on various states. “The cost of inaction is at the same order of magnitude, if not higher, than doing something about it.”

 In an October report, the Germany-based company wrote, “The intensities of certain weather events in North America are among the highest in the world, and the risks associated with them are changing faster than anywhere else.” The study concludes that natural catastrophes globally have more than doubled in the past 30 years, driven chiefly by an increase in extreme weather. But in North America, the rate of weather disasters has increased nearly fourfold, costing more than $1 trillion over 30 years."

In 2010, the SEC began requiring publicly traded companies to disclose risk to their bottom line associated with climate change. The agency’s job is to protect investors by making sure they know what they’re in for when they put their money into a company.  So what poses a reportable climate risk? Businesses that make products that need water, including major beverage producers, are already experiencing more risk in an increasingly water-constrained world. Climate data tell them that risk will continue to climb as drought makes water scarcer. Coca-Cola learned this firsthand in 2004, when it lost an operating license in India due to water shortage."

 The Mississippi carries freight loads of steel and grain from the heartlands’ farms and factories on their way to international ports on the Gulf Coast. But this summer, as a scorching drought sent water levels lower and lower, barges were delayed or blocked from moving at all. Shipping delays come with price tags. Drought-related closures affecting commercial barge traffic will result in losses of about $7 billion through the end of January, according to the barging industry. For now, the government is stepping in with a short-term solution. The Army Corps of Engineers is dredging the river to keep it open. The cost to taxpayers is about $10 million.

Posey is an urban planner, not a climate scientist. But it’s clear to him that a changing climate is affecting how people and goods move, and the data tell him it’s going to get worse. “Increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have the potential to affect transportation in every part of the country,” he says, adding that the challenge now is to act. 

The Great Lakes, which also play a crucial role in North American shipping, are experiencing a similar pattern. A 2008 study by Canadian economist Frank Millerd concluded that higher temperatures caused by climate change are lowering lake levels, restricting the numbers of vessels and weights of cargo that can transit the lakes. That increases the number of trips necessary to ship the same amount of cargo and raises shipping companies’ costs by an average of up to 22 percent.

The draft National Climate Assessment report identifies the nation’s roads, rivers, ports, highways, and airports as highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, which then ripple throughout the economy.

Not far from St. Louis, the drought is laying siege to Kent Peppler’s livelihood. “ "Peppler, who is president of the Rocky Mountain Farmers Union, likens the economic drought to a cancer. “It just grows and grows,” he says. “When the farmer doesn’t have any money to spend in the community that he lives in, it affects the whole community. It’s a train wreck. People have land and machinery payments. Insurance covers some things, but it doesn’t cover everything.”

American farmers such as Peppler grow more corn than anyone else—40 percent of the world’s supply. Last year, they grew a lot less, and it hurt. The record summer heat wave that gripped the nation caused a devastating drought that parched crop soil across the Midwest and South. That sent U.S. corn production plunging by about 23 percent, according to a December report by the National Bureau of Economic Research. And the economists who wrote the report concluded, “While extreme heat was significantly above normal, climate-change scenarios suggest that the 2012 outcomes will soon be the new normal.”

In the 2011-12 season, the price of corn averaged $6.22 a bushel. This year, it is forecast to shoot to record levels of $6.95 to $8.25. That price spike will seep through the rest of the economy because corn is part of almost everything we eat. It is the main ingredient in the feed for cattle, hogs, and chickens, so spikes in corn prices are driving up the cost of milk, eggs, beef, pork, and chicken.

The economic hit to farmers, farming communities, and food prices will continue, he says. “With climate change, this is a long-run, permanent change. It’s very hard to see a situation where corn prices aren’t going up in the long run.”

And some of the biggest, thirstiest water consumers of all—electric power plants—were forced to shut down entirely. A typical coal-fired power plant can consume up to 11 million gallons of water to operate each day. During the 2011 drought in Texas, water shortages threatened more than 3,000 megawatts of generating capacity, enough power to supply over a million homes. At the same time, electricity demand spiked as people cranked up air conditioners against the sweltering heat. Production prices shot up to $3,000 per megawatt-hour—more than three times the amount that generators are allowed to charge their customers.

Here’s one of the greatest ironies of the cost of climate change. The scientific data are clear about the biggest culprit: pollution created by burning fossil fuels, particularly oil and coal. And those industries are among the first suffering from the changing climate. Hotter, drier weather makes it more difficult for electric power plants to get the water they need to operate. Rising sea levels and extreme storms, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, have already dealt a series of body blows to the U.S. oil industry’s infrastructure.

The Gulf, off the shores of Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, is home to a vast network of drilling rigs, pipelines, ports, and refineries that collectively produce and import more than 20 percent of U.S. oil. In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita offered a preview of what’s in store for that offshore industry in a future of more extreme storms. The hurricanes sliced through the heart of the Gulf Coast’s fossil-fuel infrastructure, destroying 113 oil and gas platforms and damaging 457 oil and gas pipelines. Oil prices spiked by $3 a barrel, and gasoline prices shot up to nearly reach $5 a gallon in sovme parts of the country. 

The cost of climate change will affect consumers far beyond the gas pump. The National Climate Assessment projects a future of longer, hotter summers, which means more demand for air conditioning. The report estimates that by 2070, Midwesterners will experience 33 more 95-plus degree days a year, and a 64 percent increase in the number of days they’ll need to run their air conditioners. Southeasterners will get 23 more 95-plus degree days, and 43 percent more air-conditioning days. Residents of the cool Northwest will experience only five more days per year of at least 95 degrees, but an 89 percent increase in the days they’ll need air conditioning.

"More volatile weather and stronger storms aren’t the only worries for the residents of the Norfolk area. Several times a year, high tides flood the city’s main thoroughfare, Hampton Boulevard, cutting off access to the center of town, the naval base, and the hospital." "As far as two blocks inland, the oak and flowering crape myrtle trees that shade the neighborhood are dead or dying, a result of saltwater soaking the roots. The ocean water has also killed the grass in the once-gracious lawns across the street from the river. In its place has grown up a spiky, scrubby swamp grass, known as spartina. 

Norfolk’s mayor, Paul Fraim, is worried. “It’s clear that the sea level is rising,” he says. “It’s discernible; it’s verifiable. We’ve already had to spend a lot of money on mitigation…. But in Virginia’s capital of Richmond, mentioning climate change is politically radioactive. While neighboring states such as Delaware and Maryland have included climate-change data in their long-term regional planning and reduced development in areas where higher sea levels could cause damage, Virginia’s Republican governor, Bob McDonnell, shelved a climate-change action plan proposed by a commission under his Democratic predecessor, Tim Kaine.

McDonnell’s possible successor, GOP Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, has waged an aggressive campaign against including climate change in public-policy decisions. He also made headlines in 2010 for investigating University of Virginia climate scientist Michael Mann, and again in 2012 for trying unsuccessfully to block the Environmental Protection Agency from regulating greenhouse gases. In 2011, delegates from the Hampton Roads area sought money from the Virginia General Assembly to study how sea-level rise could affect coastal regions. After tea-party activists objected to spending money on climate science,- the language was changed to “recurrent flooding” and passed by the Legislature.

The same hostility can be found in neighboring North Carolina. There, a group of coastal developers pushed the state to junk a study showing that climate change would likely lead to a 3-foot sea-level rise by the end of the century, a level that could damage more than 2,000 square miles of the low-lying state. For now, the developers remain free to continue building along the fragile coastline, as the state Legislature delayed consideration of a climate study by three years.

That denial just means others will bear the costs. Those who will have to adapt to the changes no matter what—insurance companies, financial firms, and civil engineers—are trying to plan for what’s to come. “Every state Department of Transportation recognizes that climate change is a big threat to their customers, but there are a lot of states where there is skepticism about climate change,” says economist Cynthia Burbank, vice president at the engineering firm Parsons Brinckerhoff, who served for 31 years at the U.S. DOT. “And that makes it really hard for public-sector transportation agencies. Some of them have to do adaptation work under the radar and refer to it as ‘extreme weather’ rather than ‘climate change.’ ”

Adds Norfolk’s Mayor Fraim: “As soon as you get caught up in a discussion about climate change, people start going to various corners of that debate, and their willingness to work with you slows down. At the state level, when we talk about flooding, people say, ‘Sure, we’ll help.’ When we talk about climate change—people don’t want to talk about it.”

Spending more and more money without planning for what lies ahead drives a soft-spoken numbers guy like Jimmy Strickland to the edge of his patience. “It’s foolish to put our heads in the sand and think it’s not going to occur again,” he says. “Because it is.”

This article appeared in the Saturday, February 9, 2013 edition of National Journal.