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Michelle Obama hits trail for endangered Dems, while husband stays home

Posted: Sep 22, 2014

This speaks volumes!

;

Funny, if President Obama - sm

[ In Reply To ..]
were out campaigning, the criticism would be that he should be at home---tending to presidential business.

This is further evidence of the schizophrenic Republican party. They use shotgun approach, surely they'll hit something.

He SHOULD be attending to business. - sm

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Not golfing. Not fundraising. But working! That's why he was elected. To run the country. Remember?

As far as the schizophrenia, I think you better check the Dems on that one. They want him. They don't. They want him. They don't. He loves me. He loves me not. He loves me. He loves me not.

He should have been attending to business when - Warned about Isis 2 years ago.

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nm

He was too busy fundraising and golfing. - Idiot again.

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Kinda like the name. I know it's said with love.

The Pubs all sound like broken records. It's - the same old BS over and over.

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NM

That's cause he keeps golfing and fundraising. - nm

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nm

Make up your mind. Is he fundraising or staying home? - mtm (nm)

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nm

I never said he was staying home. Different posters. - Nm

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nm

I hope she cinches those elections - turning red to the blue

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nm

That's going to be a magic trick. Dems have destroyed their chances - more and more blue states are turning red.

[ In Reply To ..]
nm

They only turn "red" by politicians tweeking - county lines in their favor.

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You're only kidding yourself if you think this country, after so many years of obstructionist, racist, misogynistic, anti-working class antics in Congress, would even THINK of putting another republican in the White House. At least not for a long, long time. The Republican Party needs a major overhaul, and if it doesn't re-invent itself and take a long, hard look at the damage they've done in the past 2+ decades, they may disappear entirely.

People have to vote for district changes. - sm

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That means all sides. Majority rules. It's not a matter of the politicians making the decision.

As far as who wins the next elections, we'll see. I wouldn't bet on either side right now. Whoever boasts one side over the other just may end up with egg on his or her face.

I don't think so. - sm

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I don't think the person to whom you are responding meant "county" lines--I don't even know what that would mean???--I think it is congressional districts that we might be concerned with. I think in some states this even matters to the electoral college vote. But, it definitely makes a difference in House of Rep voting as those are the congressional district lines that those people represent, and in looking in this article, it is indeed "politicians" making decisions about these lines in many states.

It seems that district lines are drawn in a number of ways, but I don't think "the people" ever vote on it.

National Overview of Redistricting: Who draws the lines?
June 1, 2010
Each state decides for itself who draws its district lines, which has led to a few different models: state legislature, political commissions and independent comissions

State legislature

In 37 states, the state legislature has the power to draw the lines of state legislative districts. In each of these states, and six others, the legislature also draws congressional district lines.

Governor’s veto. In most of these states, district lines are passed like other laws, which means that the governor has the chance to veto a redistricting map. The governor has no veto power over the legislature’s decision in just five states (CT, FL, MD, MS, NC).

Supermajority. In both CT and ME, redistricting maps must be passed by a 2/3 majority.

Courts. Most states have a deadline for drawing district lines, set by the state constitution. If the legislature can’t agree on a map before the deadline, state or federal courts may step in to make sure that the district lines are set before the next election. Courts also sometimes draw maps of their own to remedy legal violations in maps passed by the legislature.

Advisory commissions. Five states (IA, ME, NY, RI, VT) appoint commissions to help advise the legislature; in most cases, the legislature can ignore their recommendations. In Iowa, however, a nonpartisan bureau draws draft lines for the legislature to accept or reject as is; only after the legislature has rejected two sets of plans can it draw districts as it pleases. So far, the Iowa legislature hasn’t used its authority to drawn its own maps from scratch.

Backup commissions. In seven states, there are special backup procedures to draw state district lines if the legislature fails to do so. In MD, the Governor’s proposal becomes the default plan; in OR, the job falls to the Secretary of State. Each of the other five states forms a backup commission. In CT and IL, the backup commission is made up of people selected by the legislative leadership. In MS, OK, and TX, the backup commission is made up of specific statewide elected officials, like the State Treasurer or state Attorney General.

Politician commissions

Politician commissions draw state legislative districts in seven states (AR, CO, HI, MO, NJ, OH, PA). These commissions don’t prohibit elected officials from serving as members, but they do take redistricting out of the hands of the legislature as a whole.

Each politician commission is designed differently. In AR and OH, specific statewide elected officials have seats on the commission. In the other states, the legislative or party leadership nominates commissioners, usually with balanced numbers from each party, and sometimes with help from the Governor or Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court.

Independent Commissions

Six states (AK, AZ, CA, ID, MT, WA) currently conduct state redistricting through independent commissions, in which no individual drawing the lines can be a legislator or public official. AZ and CA also bar legislative staff from serving on the commission; CA, ID, and WA bar lobbyists from serving on the commission.

These six states also prevent commissioners from running for office in the districts they draw, at least for a few years after they draw the lines.

Together, the restrictions on who can be a commissioner and the restrictions on running for office mean that even though legislators may have a role in picking commissioners, neither legislators nor candidates draw their own district lines themselves

The process for choosing the commissioners is slightly different in each state:

Alaska: The Governor chooses two commissioners, the state Senate and House majority leaders each choose one, and the Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court chooses one.

Arizona: The four legislative majority and minority leaders each choose one commissioner from a pool of 25 nominees chosen by the state’s panel for nominating appellate judges. Those four commissioners then select a fifth tiebreaker who is not registered in the same party as any other commissioner.

California: State auditors choose 20 Democrats, 20 Republicans, and 20 who are neither, and the four legislative leaders each cut two people from each pool. Eight commissioners (3 Democrats, 3 Republicans, 2 neither) are chosen randomly from the remaining nominees; those eight choose six colleagues (2 Democrats, 2 Republicans, 2 neither). A map can only pass if it gets nine votes: 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans, and 3 neither.

Idaho: The four legislative leaders each choose one commissioner, and the state party chairs each choose one more, for a total of six.

Montana: The four legislative leaders each choose one commissioner, with geographic balance. Those four commissioners then choose a fifth tiebreaker.

Washington: The four legislative leaders each choose one commissioner; those four then choose a fifth chairperson, who does not vote on the final map. Once the commission has drawn a map, the legislature may tweak the lines; however, it needs a 2/3 vote to do so, and the changes can only affect 2% of the population in any given district.

Wrong because if what you said is true - sm

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Then the only way democrats win is by "tweeking county lines in their favor".

The people of the country are finally standing up saying enough is enough. They are holding responsible the people that need to be held responsible - the democrats. More and more people every day are steering away from democrats.

I read many different sites and what I am hearing is not good both for democrats and what the democrats are doing. Their lining up their dirty tricks in hopes of stealing the elections. Stealing elections is the only way they will win. The people of the country are on to their lies, their obstructionism, and their not working for the people. Americans are ready for a change and have said so loud and clear.

Wow, just change Democrat to Republican - all through that post...

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and that would be my experience.

That is how divisive the people have become. Campaigning ought to be easy. Seems everyone has made up their minds already!

No, because you can't change facts. - nm

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nm

Uh, those aren't facts -- they are opinions - read the last post from PEC

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It's an analytical opinion, but still an opinion -- that is contrary to the supposed "facts."

I will certify for every source you have found that shows everyone turning from the Democrats, there is one that shows the Republicans going down the tubes. That might be a fact. Whether the articles are correct or not is opinion.

Um, yes they are facts. Just because you don't like them - doesn't change that they are facts

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It's what the dems get/deserve for screwing over the country.

Stil not facts just because the Republicans - believe them

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xx

They are facts! I know you don't like them, but that doesn't change - they are facts! Period!

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end of story.

Honestly. Those are NOT the facts. - sm

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I sincerely do not understand why conservatives think that the words "period" and "end of story" somehow automatically make incorrect information become true.

While you may very well read a lot of sites telling you otherwise along with all manner of anti-Democratic propaganda, the facts don't match the rhetoric you are being told. Why do you insist that for democrats to win they have to "steal elections?" When a Republican wins it is a fair election that wasn't somehow stolen? I guess you're being told that on the websites you read?

You also speak of obstructionism. You do realize that Democrats control the White House and therefore set the agenda? The party obstructing the agenda is, in fact, the Republican/Tea Party. Democrats are generally not obstructing their own agenda. Democrats are the actual party of the working man so I am puzzled why on Earth anyone would actually believe "they are not working for the people." This is not a remotely true statement. I don't see Democrats refusing to raise the minimum wage, while Republicans continue to obstruct the passage of it along with many, many other bills.

Notwithstanding what you're reading, honestly, the demographics of the country are shifting toward the Democratic Party. Honestly, conservative politicians know this, and that is why many of them are shifting their views to the center. In order for the GOP to win the White House, they'll have to elect someone with moderate views who favors a centrist agenda.

Midterm elections favor Republicans, but general elections favor Democrats. The Republicans may retake the Senate in 2014, but when 2016 rolls around, it should go right back to a Democratic Senate and should be a Democratic White House unless Republicans manage to overcome huge demographics that are NOT in their favor at all. As far as gerrymandering, honestly, it has a GOP bias, and geography has a GOP bias too (see link).

Truth.

Whereas I would tend to favor your post - anything based on polls

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is shaky and needs some real analysis. Whenever, I see a poll, I look to see who took it and who that outlet favors, decide if it matches up. If it does, I take it with a grain of salt. If it is someone I want to win, I smile and take it with a grain of salt. Just be HONEST. I would like to see less spewing of FACT, PERIOD, END of STORY. At some point it is semantics. I suppose it is FACT that someone took a poll and said this or that, but it is not based in fact, which is the real crux of the issue.

Frankly, the interesting part to me is that the analysis lately is showing that the prior trends might not hold for this year. (For whatever reason, not to be held as fact, the Democrats are more representative of more people or the Republicans are so fractionated that people can't figure out how to support them, or a myriad of other accusations that are out there.)

The polling trend analyses are getting better by some groups. Technology has made it possible and some of those intricacies are being accounted for in the analysis (i.e. cell phones and no land lines for polling). It is fascinating to read the analysis that PEC does. They do not believe every poll, and they do not only believe the polls that favor their leaning...and they have a very good track record. They are very good at correcting misalignments that they see due to all sorts of strange things.

If you wish to watch or read your favorite news outlet, and usually they are backing whomever you wish to win, then you can go to your friends and shout out that so-and-so is going to win because of the "facts" that you heard. They aren't really "facts" they are wishes and trends and speculation and hopes. That is why I would say to the very day of each election that "it looks like X might win" because someone I respect and who has a good track record in such things has predicted it to be possible, but these are not facts until he wins. I must ask, did your news outlet predict the 2012 election? and how far in advance?

Now, I believe that gerrymandering or the changing of lines to favor a certain party voting has occurred. I also see a desire for restriction in voter identification at the polls that makes it more difficult for some to vote. Also, there have been absolutely ridiculous restrictions on voting timing, both in person and by absentee. These, I believe, are all Republican attempts to control the Democratic vote.

Further, it has been mentioned that a civics test should be given to qualify to vote (smacks of literacy tests way back which prevented the poor from voting), the concern over ID cards for immigrants in New York being used to vote, the accusations at voter fraud which has been found to be very low, all to be fear-mongering techniques to try to justify controlling the masses of unwanted, possibly, Democratic votes. Did you see those lines in Florida and some of the southern states in the 2012 election? That is ridiculous. I have never waited more than 15 minutes, and that was a presidential election year. That sort of shenanigans has to stop. I understand Republicans are desperate, but really?

Princeton Election Consortium - sm

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These guys do analysis of the polls---and they are good at it.

The top of the page---

Senate, September 23, 2014 10:00 AM:
Democrats+Independents: 50
GOP: 50
Meta-margin: D +0.8%
RSS

Probability of Democratic+Independent control: 70% in an election today, 70% on Election Day

Do you believe in magic, in a young girl's heart? (gives away my age, not so young)----but, if that is what you have to call it, yep, I believe.

As to the presidential election, I'm getting through mid-terms first, but I will use the phrase I did in 2012 for the Republican conglomeration "Send in the clowns."

Listing independents with democrats??? - sm

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That was the first sign more research into this was needed. I guess if you're a liberal and are trying to fool yourselves that democrats would be listed with independents then as they say "I've got a bridge for sale".

Independents are independents. They are not part of the democrat or republican group. If they were they would not be called independents.

For an independent viewpoint I prefer the groups that have been around for years that can accurately predict by what has happened in history, and by talking with people all over the country, studying trends, and understanding politics.

"GOP Favorability Recovers From Post-Shutdown Drop - The Democratic Party is now viewed less favorably than at almost any point in the last 20 years, according to a new Gallup survey. Meanwhile, the GOP’s favorability has fully recovered since plummeting during last year’s government shutdown" (which by the way was caused by democrats and ended up backfiring on them).

According to most places republicans are on the rise.

Send in the clowns? They already did. Obama is in.

The three possible/likely Independents - will Caucus with Democrats

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That is an opinion, not a fact, because it hasn't happened --- yet.

Bernie Sanders might as well be a Democrat as non-Republican as he is

It is said Angus King will vote so long as he is not against the majority

and Orman is not likely to vote with the party he just beat.

This would be 53 Democrats - if everything goes as predicted -- once again --opinion.

Interesting bit of fiction there. There's picking and choosing of facts. - sm

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You state in your post that the Democrats caused the shut down last year and that it backfired on them. You also talk about the Gallup survey that shows "the GOP’s favorability has fully recovered since plummeting during last year’s government shutdown." Not sure how you deduced that Democrats caused the shut down from that. Notwithstanding what you've been told, Republicans orchestrated the shut down last year, which in fact is why their ratings had plummeted. The Senate sent the House a bill to fund the government that John Boehner tabled and would not allow a vote in the House. He did that because the Tea Party wanted it and requested it. The far right Republicans caused the shut down. Don't take my word for it. The man himself who did it, Boehner, explained this on the Tonight Show (see link below).

I also looked at the Gallup survey you mentioned. The survey's title is: "Democratic, Republican Party Favorable Ratings Now Similar, Ratings of GOP improve, but are still negative" (see this link)

https://www.gallup.com/poll/176093/democratic-republican-party-favorable-ratings-similar.aspx

"Americans' views of the Democratic and Republican parties are now similar, mainly because of their more positive ratings of the GOP. Since bottoming out at 28% last fall during the government shutdown, Americans' opinions of the Republican Party have grown more positive and are nearly back to pre-shutdown levels. Over the same time period, ratings of the Democratic Party have generally held steady.

Americans view both parties negatively overall, with a 40% favorable and 57% unfavorable rating for the Republican Party, and a 42% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating for the Democratic Party. This net-negativity toward both major political parties has generally been the case since 2010, apart from President Barack Obama's re-election year in 2012, when on several occasions Americans had slightly more positive than negative views of the Democrats.

There are encouraging and discouraging signs for both parties in the latest poll, conducted Sept. 4-7, just two months before the important midterm elections."

So as it turns out, the Gallup survey shows Democrats are still seen more favorably than Republicans. Go figure.

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