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Poll number pre-convention
Posted: Aug 29, 2012
It will be interesting to see what, if anything changes in a week or so after the convention.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Obama (D) | Romney (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 8/13 - 8/28 | -- | -- | 46.8 | 45.7 | Obama +1.1 |
| Democracy Corps (D) | 8/23 - 8/27 | 1000 LV | 3.1 | 49 | 47 | Obama +2 |
| CBS News | 8/22 - 8/26 | 1051 RV | 3.0 | 46 | 45 | Obama +1 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 8/22 - 8/25 | 857 RV | 4.0 | 46 | 47 | Romney +1 |
| CNN/Opinion Research | 8/22 - 8/23 | 719 LV | 3.5 | 49 | 47 | Obama +2 |
| FOX News | 8/19 - 8/21 | 1007 LV | 3.0 | 44 | 45 | Romney +1 |
| Gallup (Wednesday) | 7-Day Tracking | 3050 RV | 2.0 | 47 | 46 | Obama +1 |
| Rasmussen (Wednesday) | 3-Day Tracking | 1500 LV | 3.0 | 46 | 45 | Obama +1 |
| Resurgent Republic (R) | 8/16 - 8/22 | 1000 LV | 3.1 | 46 | 45 | Obama +1 |
| Associated Press/GfK | 8/16 - 8/20 | 885 RV | 4.1 | 47 | 46 | Obama +1 |
| NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl | 8/16 - 8/20 | 1000 RV | 3.1 | 48 | 44 | Obama +4 |
| Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun | 8/15 - 8/19 | 1149 LV | 2.9 | 46 | 45 | Obama +1 |
| LA Times/USC | 8/13 - 8/19 | 954 LV | 3.2 | 48 | 46 | Obama +2 |
Anyone know the +/- margin of error? - kr
[ In Reply To ..]Do these polls reflect decisive Obama leading and Romney trailing, or a statistical tie?
Right now I'd say its a tie.....sm - JTBB
[ In Reply To ..]I don't think there's going to be any significant change until after the debates.
Democrats need an extra 5 points to counterract Pub voter suppression. - disgusted - nm
[ In Reply To ..]
Repubs need an extra 15 points to - counteract Dems voter fraud
[ In Reply To ..].
The good news is....sm - JTBB
[ In Reply To ..]typically these polls such as above are of folks who are steady voters and are usually die hard one way or the other. It doesn't count in things like "likability" or "who do you trust with the economy." It also doesn't show different groups of folks, for example: black voters = Romney 0, women, latinos, youth...etc. I think a lot of the polls we are seeing are very misleading and don't really tell the public (unless you really look for it) who constitutes those polled. I do agree, though, that voter suppression is going to play a big role in this election. When we get through with this election, we (dems) need to concentrate on getting those who would suppress the vote out of office on local levels.
I was gonna like your post until you wrote the last 2 sentences. - backwards typist
[ In Reply To ..]So I'll only give you a half-like. ;)
Sorry, but I still don't believe voter suppression is taking place. Every 10 years because of the census, they look at the population and then have to change district borders or even combine a districts because of loss of population.
Is that voter suppression?
Maybe not....but...sm - JTBB
[ In Reply To ..]Requiring additional ID to fix a nonexistent problem, cutting early voting in areas where it has been proven necessary, giving copies of lists of registered voters to True the Vote for intimidation purposes, and threatening to fire officials who actually stand up for the right to vote do fall into that category.
I think she asked if anyone "knew", not what you'd say. - LM
[ In Reply To ..]nm
To kr - Conservative
[ In Reply To ..]Hi kr: The MoE is listed in approximately the center line of each respective poll and is a little different for each poll based on number of likely voters, etc. At the very top of that post, it has the average of these national polls with Obama at 1.1+. Hope this answers your question.
Thanks much! - kr
[ In Reply To ..]I should have seen that. Thanks again.
No problem - Conservative
[ In Reply To ..]There is so much information crammed in those graphs, sometimes it is an easy thing to miss. If you are interested in further explanation of those polls, Real Clear Politics web site posts several polls from several sites, maps, graphs, etc. Quite interesting, but takes some time to get through. Another good 3-day rolling poll site is Rasmussen, which also publishes a lot of information regarding several subjects affecting voter's decisions.
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