The Reign of Right-Wing Primetime

(HOLLYWOOD REPORTER) — We'll name a hit TV show, and you guess if it's more popular among Republicans or Democrats.

First, "NCIS" — investigating military crimes on CBS. Safe bet conservatives love it, right?

How about ABC's "Desperate Housewives" — a racy soap, female audience? Little more tricky.

Now things get tough: CBS's geeky, atheist-friendly "The Big Bang Theory," Fox's megarated "American Idol," ABC's progressive Emmy winner "Modern Family."

Which of these shows is favored more by Republicans?

All of them.

According to months of data from leading media-research company Experian Simmons, viewers who vote Republican and identify themselves as conservative are more likely than Democrats to love the biggest hits on TV. Of the top 10 broadcast shows on TV in the spring, nine were ranked more favorably by viewers who identify themselves as Republican.

Liberals appreciate many of the same shows, mind you. But their devotion typically is not quite as strong as right-wingers, and Dems are more likely to prefer modestly rated titles.

Like "Mad Men."

The Emmy favorite has struggled to get a broad audience on AMC. It scores through the roof with Democrats (does anyone in Santa Monica or on Manhattan's Upper West Side not watch it?), but it has one of the weakest scores among Republicans. The same is true for FX's "Damages," Showtime's "Dexter," HBO's "Entourage" and AMC's "Breaking Bad."

And it’s not like Republicans have something against cable shows: The GOP has plenty of love for "White Collar," "Pawn Stars" and "American Chopper."

"The big shows with mass appeal tend to have above-average scores from Democrats and Republicans but with higher concentrations of Republicans," says John Fetto, senior marketing manager at Experian Simmons. "Looking at the Democrats' side, I don't mean to make light of it, but they seem to like shows about damaged people. Those are the kind of shows Republicans just stay away from."

That also goes for the soft-rated, critically beloved "30 Rock." Its score is highly polarized in favor of Democrats. The only show on NBC's Thursday night comedy block that Republicans rate highly (slightly better than Democrats, even) is "The Office" ... which happens to be the one bona fide hit in the bunch.

All this isn't to suggest Republicans are a perfect oracle of ratings success. Age certainly is a factor: Younger shows are more likely to be popular with Democrats, as is just about everything on The CW, as well as animated comedies like the Fox hit "Family Guy." Republicans vote strongly for reality-competition hits, but such popular youthful docusoaps as "Jersey Shore" and "Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami" are best appreciated by Dems. Likewise, left-wingers have a stronger affinity for certain veteran crime procedurals, including "The Closer" and "Law & Order," as well as anything that appeals strongly to women.

But if you look at the list of broadcast shows that are Republican favorites, it closely mirrors the Nielsen top 10 list, whereas Democrats tend to gravitate toward titles likely to have narrower audiences.

To Hollywood, the data suggest a potentially disquieting idea: The TV industry is populated by liberals, but big-league success may require pleasing conservatives.

[Photos: Find out what your favorite TV show says about you.]

Was TV always like this?

There certainly was a period during the mid- to late-1990s when the Clintons were in the White House and Nielsens were topped by NBC's young, progressive urbanites such as those on "Friends," "Mad About You," "Will & Grace" and "Seinfeld," along with liberal-skewing dramas like "The West Wing." But even back then during a progressive primetime heyday, there was plenty of Nielsen love for "Home Improvement," "Touched by an Angel" and "Everybody Loves Raymond."

"Historically, the shows that have done better are populist, mainstream and give us confidence in our public institutions," TV historian Tim Brooks says. "For a while in the 1960s and early 1970s, shows started representing social rebellion, but broadcast quickly reverted to 'Happy Days.'"

What has changed is the explosion on cable that has allowed networks to appeal to more specific viewpoints, from Comedy Central's "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" to Fox News's "Glenn Beck." Moreover, if you're a liberal viewer in a major city (which typically correlates with higher education) and you have such titles as "Mad Men" and "Dexter" to watch each week, are you going to also be interested in seeing a paint-by-numbers crime procedural on broadcast or a laugh-track-boosted sitcom? On the scripted side, at least, the explosion of complex dramas on cable may have ceded some of the broadcast ground to what one might label Republican tastes.

Of course, a broadcaster can attempt to program a cable-style complex drama, but then you'll likely watch the show die faster than you can say "Lone Star" (or, for that matter, NBC's longtime struggling "Friday Night Lights," which skews Democrat in Experian data despite being about small-town football in Texas).

All of which brings us to …

Alaska.

"Sarah Palin's Alaska." TLC is set to make one of the biggest bets of the year by taking arguably the most polarizing figure in politics and giving her a reality show. The broadcast hits on Experian's index tend to have at least some bipartisan support, but the lower ratings bar set for cable shows mean they get away with appealing to only one side or the other.

"Look at what happened in the election: A lot of people will tune in for Sarah Palin," says Gary Carr, senior VP at media buyer TargetCast.

TLC president and GM Eileen O'Neill is likewise confident Palin will pay off.

"I'm really optimistic," she says. "I think it could be one of our strongest shows out there. There's a lot of buzz."

Get a sneak peek at "Sarah Palin's Alaska" right here: