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Five poll numbers that should make Democrats uneasy

Posted: Jul 22, 2017

This is from CNN. Don't know if it's true or not, but it does mention ABC and WaPo, so it must be true.;

There's lots more polls that should make - Trump supporters uneasy

[ In Reply To ..]
but you don't believe poles, remember?

I don't. They oversample Democrats depending - who the polsters are.

[ In Reply To ..]
xx

and you know this how? - nm

[ In Reply To ..]
.

WaPo ABC polling obviously predicted the US - election incorrectly.

[ In Reply To ..]
They’ll point to the “margin of error” and claim they were aiming to predict the popular vote, of course. But this still led to them presenting Mrs. Clinton as the presumptive winner. Them, and basically everyone else, which is unsurprising, given the way these things work.

The latest headlines — which themselves have seeded hundreds of articles in the press about the matter — are about President Trump’s unpopularity, born out of a poll of just 1,001 people. That’s an average of 20 people per state in the U.S. they hold up as “representative”.

The representative element comes from projecting this data out using pollster voodoo. This is what you’re really paying for when you commission a poll. Anyone can survey 1,001 people, but these guys claim to know the “right” people, and then be able to project their views out onto the whole nation.

Then we go into the data tables. Since this time last year they have over-represented Democrat voters in their studies. For this latest one, 35 per cent of their respondents were Democrats, 23 per cent were Republicans, 35 per cent were Independents (who in turn lean towards voting Democrat), six per cent said ‘Other’, and two per cent had no opinion on the matter.

Interviews, they add, were conducted in English and Spanish, and demographic questions they asked are not included in the data. I asked the Washington Post why, but at the time of publication I had received no response.

Additionally, they didn’t even choose to whom they were speaking. They used a process called Random Digit Dialling, which I wrote about on the run up to the Brexit referendum (another one the pollsters got wrong):

One polling industry insider told Breitbart London that [pollster] ORB uses “random digit dialing” which effectively dials random numbers until it makes a connection with a human being who might answer questions. The methodology is used by Pew’s Research Center, but in tiny sample sizes can lead to a less representative sample that relies more on post-poll weighting.

This method has been under fire for years, but is still used with scant criticism.

Finally, the pollster declares in the data tables: “Interviewers called landlines and cellular phone numbers, first requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home. The final sample included 350 interviews completed on landlines and 651 interviews completed via cellular phones, including 404 interviews with adults in cell phone-only households”.

Young cell phone users made up the dominant part of the poll, and cell phone-only households made up nearly half the interviews. It should not take a political scientist to work out how this, combined with the Dem/Ind bent (70 per cent) of the respondents, makes the poll unrepresentative.

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