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Economists concerned that we need more inflation.


Posted: Oct 27, 2013

From NY Times

In Fed and Out, Many Now Think Inflation Helps

Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, some of whose officials cite the slower pace of inflation as a reason to continue the stimulus.

 

WASHINGTON — Inflation is widely reviled as a kind of tax on modern life, but as Federal Reserve policy makers prepare to meet this week, there is growing concern inside and outside the Fed that inflation is not rising fast enough.

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Some economists say more inflation is just what the American economy needs to escape from a half-decade of sluggish growth and high unemployment.

The Fed has worked for decades to suppress inflation, but economists, including Janet Yellen, President Obama’s nominee to lead the Fed starting next year, have long argued that a little inflation is particularly valuable when the economy is weak. Rising prices help companies increase profits; rising wages help borrowers repay debts. Inflation also encourages people and businesses to borrow money and spend it more quickly.

The school board in Anchorage, Alaska, for example, is counting on inflation to keep a lid on teachers’ wages. Retailers including Costco and Walmart are hoping for higher inflation to increase profits. The federal government expects inflation to ease the burden of its debts. Yet by one measure, inflation rose at an annual pace of 1.2 percent in August, just above the lowest pace on record.

“Weighed against the political, social and economic risks of continued slow growth after a once-in-a-century financial crisis, a sustained burst of moderate inflation is not something to worry about,” Kenneth S. Rogoff, a Harvard economist, wrote recently. “It should be embraced.”

The Fed, in a break from its historic focus on suppressing inflation, has tried since the financial crisis to keep prices rising about 2 percent a year. Some Fed officials cite the slower pace of inflation as a reason, alongside reducing unemployment, to continue the central bank’s stimulus campaign.

Critics, including Professor Rogoff, say the Fed is being much too meek. He says that inflation should be pushed as high as 6 percent a year for a few years, a rate not seen since the early 1980s. And he compared the Fed’s caution to not swinging hard enough at a golf ball in a sand trap. “You need to hit it more firmly to get it up onto the grass,” he said. “As long as you’re in the sand trap, tapping it around is not enough.”

All this talk has prompted dismay among economists who see little benefit in inflation, and who warn that the Fed could lose control of prices as the economy recovers. As inflation accelerates, economists agree that any benefits can be quickly outstripped by the disruptive consequences of people rushing to spend money as soon as possible. Rising inflation also punishes people living on fixed incomes, and it discourages lending and long-term investments, imposing an enduring restraint on economic growth even if the inflation subsides.

“The spectacle of American central bankers trying to press the inflation rate higher in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis is virtually without precedent,” Alan Greenspan, the former Fed chairman, wrote in a new book, “The Map and the Territory.” He said the effort could end in double-digit inflation.

The current generation of policy makers came of age in the 1970s, when a higher tolerance for inflation did not deliver the promised benefits. Instead, Western economies fell into “stagflation” — rising prices, little growth. 

Lately, however, the 1970s have seemed a less relevant cautionary tale than the fate of Japan, where prices have been in general decline since the late 1990s. Kariya, a popular instant dinner of curry in a pouch that cost 120 yen in 2000, can now be found for 68 yen, according to the blog Yen for Living.

This enduring deflation, which policy makers are now trying to end,kept the economy in retreat as people hesitated to make purchases, because prices were falling, or to borrow money, because the cost of repayment was rising. 

“Low inflation is not good for the economy because very low inflation increases the risks of deflation, which can cause an economy to stagnate,” the Fed’s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, a student of Japan’s deflation, said in July. “The evidence is that falling and low inflation can be very bad for an economy.”

There is evidence that low inflation is hurting the American economy.

“I’ve always said that a little inflation is good,” Richard A. Galanti, Costco’s chief financial officer, said in December 2008. He explained that the retailer is generally able to expand its profit margins and its sales when prices are rising. This month, Mr. Galanti told analysts that sluggish inflation was one reason the company had reported its slowest revenue growth since the recession.

Executives at Walmart, Rent-A-Center and Spartan Stores, a Michigan grocery chain, have similarly bemoaned the lack of inflation in recent months.

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This is how the Fed is going to pay back all the - money they've printed,

[ In Reply To ..]
just devalue everything and voila!, you have everything “fixed.”

Listen, all economists know done carefully it's a proven - way to lower debt--for nations as well as

[ In Reply To ..]
for mortgageholders. A little hard on those keeping their savings in a mattress, of course, which is why we diversify and hopefully keep very little in saving accounts, which, let's face it, aren't that much better than mattresses these days.

But, this article is actually talking about OTHER benefits to a healthier rate of inflation--like encouraging the 1% of the 1% to stop sitting on the national wealth in their hands and put it to work growing our economy, thus creating more and better jobs.

It's never worked. By interfering with the free market, - neither the economy nor the

[ In Reply To ..]
housing marked ever recovered with the economy actually descending into a real depression. The only segment to thrive is the stock market, which has divorced itself from reality.

But this is not by accident. While our currency is being devalued courtesy of the Federal Reserve (a group of unaccountable banks) and our national debt goes crazy courtesy of federal government (a group of unaccountable traitors) the stock market allows groups of savvy speculators to profit.

Here's how it works. The world is undergoing an economic collapse. This happens periodically and is always the result of government interferenced banks' manipulation. Basically, governments try to get something for nothing by devaluing their currencies and incurring debt beyond their ability to pay. Banks encourage these, for them, opportunities to accumulate and concentrate real wealth, i.e. real estate (especially producing real estate such as farms/ranches), precious metals (in custody), commodities (not futures), etc. One of the great mechanisms to transfer this wealth is through stock markets.

So the stock market is supported to enable transfer of wealth from the wealth creators to banking entities and some of their enablers in government. Once the transfer is as complete as possible, the stock markets are allowed to crash.

Accompanying stock market crashes is hyperinflation and collapse of financial system. ,

Remember, at this point in the process real wealth has been transferred and secured as completely as possible to the usual suspects via market methods, especially the stock market.

Congress refuses to pass a budget. Our money is nothing more than fiat currency with no real value. Our real debt is beyond redemption.

Our Founding Fathers designed the Republic through the Constitution to preclude this. However, the Progressives, Democrats, and Richard Nixon have pretty well defeated all safeguards against it.

The Progressives dismantled numerous protections of the Constitution. The Democrats with their "something for nothing" mentality have always pursued and exercised power outside the law. And Richard Nixon put the final nail in the coffin when he removed us from the gold standard.
The stated premise is total nonsense. You wouldn't - board a cruise ship without a crew, why
[ In Reply To ..]
do you think the ship of state would do better to sail off without direction, or even destination?

The only ones to benefit would be pirates and scavengers from its vulnerability. Which is a BIG, BIG clue to why some are pushing that. The U.S. is a very wealthy ship, and there're a lot of pickings to get at still.

Think about it. This is all about getting YOU to fight to disempower yourself.
This is nothing more than... - Backdoor government
[ In Reply To ..]
planned inflation to pay off debt with inflated dollars. Inflation is part of deliberate economic planning. Why do think China is buying gold?

I suggest reading "The Commanding Heights."

I took 3 econ division courses and 1 econ history - course in college. If nothing else,
[ In Reply To ..]
that made me realize there's nothing simple about economics and every action starts a whole slew of complex reactions, some foreseeable to some degree, others even the best economists can only make educated guesses at.

Three of them were literally the hardest courses I ever took. Virtually EVERYTHING I thought I understood before then was either flat wrong or only sometimes true under special conditions. And I read a world-class newspaper every day.

In any case, nothing in economics is "nothing more than." Just because someone wants to break your window with a hammer doesn't mean it can't be used to build a house in the first place, or to repair one.
For the sake of the board and readers, I like to - be brief, it's simple math.
[ In Reply To ..]
Brevity is the soul of wit.

Inflation is good? When you have a fiat - currency, watch

[ In Reply To ..]
out when policymakers say they want more inflation. They will get it.

The problem with the economy is that government regulation and taxation, along with the welfare state, discourage businesses from expanding and people from working. High inflation raises the tax rate on investment, since the definitions of capital gains and investment income for tax purposes do not account for inflation.

Inflating the currency is what you do when you have racked up a mountain of debt and you don’t have a clue of how to meaningfully grow the economy.


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