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How Sanders wins the nomination and why establishment Dems are - freaking out. sm

Posted: Feb 12th, 2020 - 12:12 pm

How Sanders wins the nomination:
* He's unified the far-left "socialist" faction of the party. Say 30% - 40% of the Dems.
* People who want a moderate will split their primary vote between Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Biden.
* Warren is out. While she may get some socialist votes, Dems know that Sanders is the "real deal," an authentic politician with a consistent message.

Why Sanders will lose to Trump:
* His socialist agenda will be painted as taking from the rich to give to the poor and the illegals.
* More than half of Dems are above the median income. They'll see Sanders as someone who will take from them and give to the poor and illegals.
* Wealthy Dems, unable to vote for Sanders in their own self-interest, will stay home.

Why establishment Dems are worried:
* Moderate Dems staying home means no one votes for Dems in Congress and state elections. Trump and Pubs get a clean sweep.
* After 2016 Pubs were very close to being able to unilaterally amend the Constitution. This could put them over the edge.
* In 2016, Pubs didn't trust Trump and moderates like McCain worked against him. That is not the situation today.
* RBG and Breyer probably won't make it through another 4 years of Trump.

4 more years of Trump is bad. 4 more years of Trump with Pub majorities in the State governments and Congress (not to mention with Justice Ginsberg at age 86 and Justice Breyer at age 81) is a complete nightmare. The Pubs will have total control.


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