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Politics

I don't see how Bernie wins the Presidency. - sm

Posted: Feb 23rd, 2020 - 6:58 pm In Reply to: Best day ever... - Super Tuesday will be incredible!

Let's divide voters into 2 groups: Republicans and Democrats. Easy. Let's further assume they're exactly equal, Reps vote for Trump, Dems for the Dem candidate.

Now let's add another factor: Wealth. Further divide the previous 2 groups into 2 additional groups: Above median income and those below the median.

Reps: 50% above average income, 50% below.

Dems: 50% above average income, 50% below.

All Reps are going to vote for Trump. They firmly believe he's improved their lives economically in the past 3 years.

On the Dem side, who votes for Bernie? The 50% with below average income will definitely vote for him. That doesn't hold up with the Dem voters with above-average income. Sure some of them will vote for Bernie just because he's not Trump. But some of them will stay home for the following reasons:

* Another 4 years of Trump will do less damage than 4-8 years of Bernie. Give this election to Trump and come back stronger with better candidates in 2024.

* Bernie has said he's coming after their wealth to benefit the poor. They don't want that.

* Bernie will lose in a landslide and negatively affect the House and State races.

The Dem/media elites may factor into this too. They're all in the above-average income camp and they don't want Bernie, for the reasons listed above. Call them the Never Bernie Democrats (NBD). They will take a stand against Bernie as the Never Trump Republicans did in 2016. The difference is those NBD elites have a bigger megaphone than the NTRs. The NTR message was amplified by the media, but most Republicans didn't believe it. By then, they had lost faith and viewed the media as biased. Dems haven't lost faith, just yet. Most of them still believe the media is telling them the truth, rather than sensationalizing for clicks and views. (Look at how many people still believe Trump colluded with Russia.)

Speaking of Russia... Has anyone noticed that Russia always helps the candidates the Dem elites don't like: Trump, Gabbard, Trump (again), Bernie?

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