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Despite Media Hype,


Posted: Sep 10, 2012

Politico’s “Unnamed Sources” say Ohio is lost for Mitt Romney. Like hell it is. They say Obama got a serious bounce from the DNC. Like hell he did. Whatever bounce Obama got was in the blue states. In the swing states, it’s still way too close to call. Today’s Rasmussen poll results show that in the eleven swing states, including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, which total 145 electoral votes, it’s Obama 46% and Romney 45%. In 2008, Obama won these states 53% to 46%. --- William Bigelow;

Meh. - nm

[ In Reply To ..]

Well, if Rasmussen says . . . - It is wrong

[ In Reply To ..]
In 2010 . . .

The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.

If one focused solely on the final poll issued by Rasmussen Reports or Pulse Opinion Research in each state — rather than including all polls within the three-week interval — it would not have made much difference. Their average error would be 5.7 points rather than 5.8, and their average bias 3.8 points rather than 3.9.

Nor did it make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were

commissioned for Fox News

by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias.

The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias.

This is what is WRONG with... - (see message)

[ In Reply To ..]
....our election system. It is incredible to me that in this FREE country where "all our voices count," it's a total farce if, in actuality, the only voices that REALLY count are the people living in those swing states. I'm not even sure it comes down to as many as 11 states....I think I've heard that it might all come down to 2 or 3 really key states. I could be wrong about that, but, either way--11 or 2--what about those of us in the other 39 to 48 states?

The rest of us live in states...sm - JTBB

[ In Reply To ..]
that are historically either red or blue and have no indication of changing anytime soon. It's not that our votes don't count, it's more like they aren't enough to sway the election. Example: I live in TN, a really, really red state, but I'm a democrat. Until such time that enough people vote democratic in my state so as to change the electorate of the state, there isn't really much that my vote can do. It kind of sucks, but that's just how it is. In the meantime, I'll keep casting my blue vote and do what I can to change this state. I personally would like to go for a straight up popular vote.

In my perfect world... - SK1

[ In Reply To ..]
We would do away with the electoral college. It served its purpose back in the day, but with today's technology there's no reason a candidate shouldn't win an election by popular vote.

Of course, in my perfect world I would also be queen of the universe, and we see where that's gotten me. ;)

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