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Democrats burned by polling blind spot. The party didn't just lose


Posted: Mar 29, 2017

missed them altogether. As they investigate the forces behind the party’s stunning losses in November, Democrats are coming to a troubling conclusion. The party didn’t just lose among rural white voters on Election Day, it may have failed to capture them in its pre-election polling as well. Many pollsters and strategists believe that rural white voters, particularly those without college degrees, eluded the party’s polling altogether — and their absence from poll results may have been both a cause and a symptom of Donald Trump’s upset victory over Hillary Clinton in several states and the size of that rural and working-class cohort. John Hagner, a partner at Clarity Campaign Labs, a D.C.-based Democratic analytics firm, said 2016 taught the party a hard lesson about polling in the Trump era. The first evidence of the party’s polling blind spot surfaced in a governor’s race, the 2015 contest in Kentucky. Both public and private polls going into the election showed Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Matt Bevin running neck-and-neck — Conway had a 3-point lead in the final RealClearPolitics average — but Bevin won by a comfortable, 9-point margin. Demographic trends confirm that these voters have been moving toward Republicans, but they don’t provide an easy answer for why pollsters have struggled to capture them in surveys. Pollsters are still analyzing whether a “shy Trump voter” effect may have been decisive in some states. Like the public polls, Democrats struggled to measure the presidential race in private polls in a number of Upper Midwest states with large numbers of working-class white voters. Clinton’s campaign mostly ignored Michigan and Wisconsin — where public and private surveys showed Clinton consistently ahead — until the final days of the race and was edged narrowly on Election Day by Trump. And the campaign invested heavily in Iowa and Ohio — two traditional battlegrounds where she trailed — only to lose both by larger margins than expected. “We projected Clinton to lose Ohio by 200,000 votes,” said Hagner, “and she lost by 450,000.” Democrats’ polling problems might not only be voters hiding their intentions from pollsters — some voters may have been hiding altogether. ;

Another month, more excuses. I'm rural white and we don't answer - polls because in the past they

[ In Reply To ..]
took my answers and twisted them, so why waste my time?

They would also look into why they have lost over 1000 seats in 8 years if they were honest with themselves.

Try doing honest polls, with honest data, and doing honest analysis and then they might get a clue (I do not expect this to happen, I expect nothing to change).

I think there were a couple who got it right, but they were obscure and not associated with the alphabet networks.

I don't answer polls because I'm tired of being called a bigot - by people who don't agree with me.

[ In Reply To ..]
Republicans are less likely to talk to a stranger about politics because of the abusive incivility that Dems are so proud to display when others don’t agree with them. Dems are proud of their abusive incivility - they feel they’ve won the culture war by screaming “bigot” or "racist" when they encounter the market place of ideas. And here in the article, still they are as clueless as ever.

I also take issue with calling people who don't have a 4 YR college degree as uneducated. I doubt calling such folks idiots (in so many words) is going to cause many of them to vote for a party that holds them in such low regard.

My husband graduated HS in 1974, joined the Air Force, pursued technical training, got an associate's degree.

Education (or skills) is only one of three legs of success. The other two are:
- drive or ambition (goals)
- dedication or discipline (effort)

The libs only look at skills and that is why they do not understand the differences in success.

Do you remember the part about Dems controlling the pollsters? - Wikileaks exposed that the DNC/HRC

[ In Reply To ..]
Campaign instructed media and pollsters on which geographic areas to poll to fill demographic quotas with Dems, and even the times of day to make their calls, to game the results their way.

Polling results were false because the pollsters followed Hillary’s specifications.

This article is the sound of her co-dependent sycophants pretending to believe that pollsters screwed up on their own.

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