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New Podesta email exposes playbook for rigging polls


Posted: Oct 24, 2016

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC/Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats. "METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll. Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC/WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient... Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling." I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended: Research, microtargeting & polling projects - Over-sample Hispanics - Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets) - Over-sample the Native American population. For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first. - Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state. - On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first. Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed." ;

They do this in red states on purposes for - psychological reasons.

[ In Reply To ..]
xx

Professor with excellent prediction record says Trump will - defeat Clinton.

[ In Reply To ..]
He told Carlson that he uses two models to make his predictions: his “primary” model and his “swing of the pendulum” model.

Typically, according to the “primary” model, the candidate who does better in the primaries than their general election opponent will do better in the general as well. Norpoth said he used the primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina to estimate his outcome, which Trump won by greater margins over his challengers than Clinton did her’s.

Secondly, Norpoth said Republicans are favored this year simply because Democrats have controlled the White House for the past eight years under President Barack Obama.

The professor even said he’s put down actual money on his prediction — that’s how certain he is that Trump will win.

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